As the Formula 1 paddock buzzes with speculation about Max Verstappen’s future, former World Champion Jacques Villeneuve has weighed in with a strong warning: Mercedes may not be the sure bet many believe for the 2026 season. While Verstappen’s potential move from Red Bull to Mercedes is one of the most talked-about stories ahead of the next era of F1 regulations, Villeneuve stresses that past success offers no guarantees for the future.

Mercedes: Proven Track Record, Uncertain Future

Mercedes dominated the grid when Formula 1 last underwent a major engine overhaul in 2014, kickstarting a golden era that saw Lewis Hamilton claim six titles with the Silver Arrows. As F1 gears up for another seismic shift in 2026, with brand-new cars and all-new power units, some believe Mercedes are poised to repeat history. Williams team principal James Vowles praised Mercedes’ work on the 2026 power unit as “exceptional,” while Williams driver Alex Albon called it a “safe bet.”

• Engine regulation changes: Mercedes excelled in 2014
• New 2026 rules: Biggest technical reset in F1 history
• Positive feedback: Paddock whispers and customer team praise

Red Bull Powertrains and Other Challengers

Meanwhile, rumors swirl about the progress of rival power units, including Red Bull Powertrains in partnership with Ford. Christian Horner, Red Bull team boss, insists development is on track: “We’re making very good headway and pleased with progress.” As the competition ramps up, no team can afford to be complacent.

Villeneuve’s Perspective: Success Isn’t Guaranteed

Villeneuve’s warning is rooted in F1’s unpredictability. He points to the skepticism surrounding Hamilton’s Mercedes switch in 2013—a move initially mocked, but ultimately validated by subsequent dominance. However, Villeneuve cautions that past regulation changes don’t always predict the future:

“Now many people think: ‘New engine, new regulations next year, Mercedes will obviously have an advantage. Just like what happened with the introduction of the hybrid engines.’ But that doesn’t mean it will happen now.”

Chassis Changes Add More Variables

The 2026 rules introduce not just new engines, but radically different cars—smaller, lighter, and more agile. When F1 last reset its chassis rules, it was Red Bull’s Adrian Newey who set the standard, with the RB18 and its successors dominating the field. While Red Bull’s recent edge has narrowed, they remain a formidable force.

Key Factors for Verstappen to Consider

• Uncertainty of new regulations
• Mercedes’ historical advantage may not repeat
• Red Bull’s proven adaptability under Newey
• Potential contract exit clause for Verstappen

The Latest on Verstappen’s Contract and Speculation

Rumors intensified around the Austrian Grand Prix, with George Russell confirming ongoing talks between Mercedes and Verstappen. A widely discussed performance clause could allow Verstappen to leave Red Bull if he falls below fourth in the championship by the Hungarian Grand Prix. Yet, Verstappen himself remains tight-lipped, stating at Silverstone: “Everything that I’ve said that week is still the same. Nothing has changed from my side.”

Conclusion: A Defining Decision Looms

As F1’s biggest regulatory overhaul in a decade approaches, Villeneuve’s advice is clear: Verstappen should not assume Mercedes will dominate simply because they did so before. With so many unknowns, the decision to switch teams could shape the next chapter of his career—for better or worse.